{"id":3303,"date":"2014-03-15T14:19:25","date_gmt":"2014-03-15T22:19:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/?p=3303"},"modified":"2014-03-15T15:07:46","modified_gmt":"2014-03-15T23:07:46","slug":"folly-of-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/archives\/3303","title":{"rendered":"Folly of Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Snow. We&#8217;d nearly forgotten. The weatherlady said expect 2&#8243;, maybe. Instead, 6-8&#8243; fell. Ah, the folly of Man&#8217;s hubris, one minute we&#8217;re predicting the Higgs boson and the next we&#8217;re knee deep in unexpected snow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some viewed this as a setback; we accepted it as opportunity. We loaded the twelve year olds into the Subaru and up into the mountains we all went to enjoy a positively serene plod through the snow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/blog\/images\/2014\/March\/birchLoop.jpg\" width=\"350\" height=\"622\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a title=\"Birch Loop\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/blog\/images\/2014\/March\/birchLoop_big.jpg\">BIGGER<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Happy Wife broke trail:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/blog\/images\/2014\/March\/trailBlazers.jpg\" width=\"350\" height=\"531\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a title=\"Trail Blazers\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/blog\/images\/2014\/March\/trailBlazers_big.jpg\">BIGGER<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Back at the trail head we met a man visiting from Tahiti. He was holding a camera and gazing at the white mountains set against the bluebird sky. Speechless. I love that.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite this latest snowfall we&#8217;re well below our annual average, and north of us, closer to Fairbanks, the day-to-day temperatures this winter have been well above average, and so, like others, I think this may mean the ice on the Tanana River could break up earlier than usual, that is if you call this usual:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/nenana.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"335\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a title=\"Real Climate Nenana Ice Classic\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2014\/03\/the-nenana-ice-classic-and-climate\/\" target=\"_blank\"><small>Source<\/small><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With the possible exception of 1963, last year was the latest breakup in almost one hundred years &#8212; over 60 days after the vernal equinox (VE). There&#8217;s a celebration held every year in Alaska called the <a title=\"Nenana Ice Classic\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nenanaakiceclassic.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Nenana Ice Classic,<\/a> which involves a contest to see who can guess the time when the tripod will fall on the Tanana River. $2.50 per guess, enter as often as you&#8217;d like. I&#8217;ve not participated in years past but this year I&#8217;m going to. The <a title=\"Nenana Ice Classic Winners 2013\" href=\"http:\/\/www.alaskadispatch.com\/article\/20130520\/97-year-old-nenana-ice-classic-sets-record-latest-breakup-river-1\" target=\"_blank\">payout<\/a> last year was $318,000.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">You might think that a higher than average day-to-day winter temperature in Nenana would cause a breakup much earlier than &#8220;normal,&#8221; and that&#8217;s true, but low snow cover means the cold penetrates deeper into the ground which has the effect of delaying ice breakup. A multi-factorial problem for sure. There&#8217;s something about April 29th at 3:42 pm that&#8217;s speaking to me right now (39 days after VE).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Or I suppose I could ask the weatherlady when the ice will go out. <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"align top alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www0.f1online.de\/premid\/005364000\/5364391.jpg\" width=\"30\" height=\"21\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Snow. We&#8217;d nearly forgotten. The weatherlady said expect 2&#8243;, maybe. Instead, 6-8&#8243; fell. Ah, the folly of Man&#8217;s hubris, one minute we&#8217;re predicting the Higgs boson and the next we&#8217;re knee deep in unexpected snow. Some viewed this as a setback; we accepted it as opportunity. We loaded the twelve year olds into the Subaru [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wikipediapreview_detectlinks":true,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3303"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3303\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3312,"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3303\/revisions\/3312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rknibbe.com\/Wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}